INCOSE North Star Spring Tutorial: “MBSE – Leverage Monte Carlo Simulation to Plan Uncertain Systems Development”

Systems analysis methods include the simulation of logical, network-based models.  If introduced early in systems life cycle planning, they can be more effective.  This tutorial advances the case that earlier model-based planning to handle uncertain conditions is likely to improve MBSE. An afternoon hands-on experience clinic with computerized models transfers skills and knowledge.

Presenter: Keith Hornbacher, MBA (Biography)
Date:  Friday, May 9, 2025
Time:  8:00 am – 4:00 pm
Location:  Medtronic OHQ; 710 Medtronic Pkwy NE, Minneapolis, MN 55432; Room – OHQ EDU LE 1B 

Key Words: Systems Analysis, Simulation, Risk Management, Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Applicable to: New product development (medical devices; technical innovations; aerospace/ defense); Large infrastructure development projects; Programmatic/project Life Cycle Cost analysis; Capital expansion decisions (plants, construction); Executive decision making across program lifecycle phases.

Goal: Increase participants’ confidence to handle uncertainty in planning systems Portfolio, Program, and Project Life Cycles using Monte Carlo Simulation of logical networks

Objectives:

• Morning: Understand the SE System Analysis and Risk Management Processes, especially the activity “Analyze Risks”[1]
  • Clarify differences among types of uncertainty and risk (threats, opportunities)
  • Address uncertainty early enough in programmatic life cycles to enable favorable results
  • Learn to collect quality data, recognize personal biases, address organizational risk attitudes; all considered in context of AI’s emerging role
  • Communicating uncertain results to those in power who demand, “Just give me the number!”
  • Demonstrate how Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of networked Program/project plans can advance implementation of MBSE beyond deterministic, qualitative thinking.
• Afternoon: Demonstration and Clinic using MCS software[2]
  • Demonstration and executive level overview of key features (computer not required)
  • Clinic: Hands on computer lab
    • Experiment with simulation of logical network-based development plans in a workshop using world class MCS methods, tools; use case examples (participants may supply)
    • Leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) in MBSE context using simulation
    • Impact and handling Trade-off Analyses
    • Quantitative analysis of plans, technical/cost/schedule risk using MCS

Cost to attend:

• Nonmembers – $325.00
  (includes INCOSE Regular Individual Member – $175.00)
• INCOSE Members – $150.00 (FULL membership only, excludes CAB memberships)

Please reach out to  if you have any questions.

Thank you,
INCOSE North Star